马斯克访华六大推测
Musk's private jet touched down in Beijing on May 30th. His last visit to China was three years ago. Reports suggest that on the day of his arrival, after a meeting with the leading official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the stock price of Tesla surged 5% at the opening, then slightly decreased, and ended the day with a 4.14% increase. Musk's previous visit to China was in January 2020, where he attended the delivery ceremony of the Shanghai Super Factory, marking a "historic moment." It was not only because of his impromptu dance that caused a stir, but also because the Shanghai Super Factory's delivery saved Tesla from its previous capacity issues and financial struggles. Now, Tesla needs the Chinese market even more to solidify and expand its market share. What is Musk's purpose in visiting China this time? And what signals will it send? Let's speculate based on Musk's schedule and Tesla's current plans.Speculation 1: The "bet" between Tesla and Shanghai is about to expire
Although Musk's specific schedule has not been disclosed to the media, many industry insiders speculate that the Shanghai Tesla Factory is the most crucial stop on his itinerary. Currently, the Shanghai plant has become the largest production site of this electric car manufacturer. Last year, the Shanghai Super Factory produced over 700,000 Model Y and Model 3, accounting for more than half of the company's global production. It is known that in 2019, Tesla and Shanghai had a "bet" agreement, where Shanghai offered land and financing discounts to Tesla. According to the disclosed agreement from Tesla's filings, Tesla needs to invest 14.08 billion yuan (approximately $2 billion) in the Shanghai factory within the next 5 years. Additionally, starting from the end of 2023, the Shanghai factory will need to pay 2.23 billion yuan (approximately $323 million) in taxes each year. If Tesla fails to meet these requirements, the land and benefits will be revoked. Reports suggest that Tesla has applied to regulators to expand its Shanghai factory, with the planned annual capacity increasing from the current 1.25 million to 1.75 million units. Moreover, Tesla announced on April 9th that it will build a factory dedicated to producing its energy storage products in Shanghai. The factory is expected to start construction in the third quarter of this year and begin operations in the second quarter of 2024. It is suggested that Musk's visit is not only to resolve the issues related to the previous "bet" agreement but also to further promote the construction of the super factory.
Speculation 2: Promoting Sino-US cooperation and accelerating the construction of manufacturing systems in China
It is worth noting that within two days of his visit, Musk met with officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. During these meetings, they exchanged views on the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles. Musk expressed that the interests of the US and China are intertwined, like Siamese twins who are inseparable. Tesla opposes "decoupling and supply chain cutting" and is willing to continue expanding its business in China and share development opportunities. After this meeting, the stock price of Tesla rose, indicating the high attention investors are paying to this visit. Industry insiders believe that Musk's visit is not only to promote Sino-US cooperation but also to promote Tesla's supply chain and industrial chain development in China. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2023, about 59,000 Model Ys were exported, ranking first in export models. The Shanghai Super Factory is also an important export center for Tesla. Last week, Tesla's website announced that it would begin to sell electric vehicles manufactured in China in the North American market. The website shows that the company will start selling China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Canada, confirming that Tesla has completed the first shipment from the Shanghai factory to North America.
Speculation 3: Promoting the implementation of Tesla FSD in China
According to reports, investors are very concerned about whether Chinese regulators will approve the release of Tesla's advanced driver assistance features. These features are part of the "Full Self-Driving (FSD)" software, which is priced at $15,000 in the US. Even at the Tesla shareholders' meeting on May 17th, Musk introduced the business prospects of FSD. However, due to concerns about the reliability, safety, and maturity of FSD technology, this technology has not been allowed to be used in China since Tesla's entry. Industry experts believe that once Tesla's FSD technology is released in China, it can not only significantly strengthen its own competitiveness but may also directly impact the competitive landscape of China's new energy market.
Speculation 4: New Tesla models to be launched
According to previous reports, the Model 3 production line at the Shanghai factory has been suspended, and it is likely preparing for the trial production of the Model 3 redesign. It is understood that Model 3 will not undergo significant changes. However, some leaked photos show that there are still some changes, such as the body size being slightly longer, camera lenses, sensors, and interior design. It is expected that Musk will visit the new Model 3 production line at the Shanghai Super Factory. It is reported that Tesla plans to launch a compact pure electric vehicle before 2025, which will be named Tesla Model Q. The affordable Tesla is likely to bring about a catastrophic impact on competitors in the price range. It is speculated that the expansion of the Shanghai factory is to bear part of the Model Q's production, and Musk's visit to China is also to promote the timely launch of Model Q.
Speculation 5: Settling the recall controversy
Recently, Tesla filed a recall of 1.1 million vehicles with the State Market Supervision Administration. Many analysts believe that Musk's visit to China is also aimed at winning back Chinese consumers. It is known that most of the reported Tesla "brake failure" accidents in China have been attributed to drivers mistakenly stepping on the accelerator pedal and driving too fast. It is not surprising that Musk chose to visit China at a time when Tesla's large-scale recall was launched to reassure investors and consumers.
Speculation 6: Strengthening cooperation with CATL
It is reported that after meeting with the leading official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Musk will meet with the chairman of CATL. Industry analysts believe that the discussion may include future cooperation in building power plants in the US and supplying power batteries. Analysts point out that currently, Tesla's 4680 battery production is insufficient, which affects its ability to launch enough electric vehicle products in a short period, and even affects its competitiveness in the Chinese market. Public information shows that CATL is one of Tesla's most important power battery suppliers, and Tesla needs to strengthen cooperation with CATL due to its considerations of ensuring battery supply and expanding production.
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