金融学领域中的CAR是如何计算? 经济学上AR与CAR是什么意思?
\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u7684CAR\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1f\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u53ca\u65b9\u6cd5\x0d\x0a\x0d\x0a1\uff1a\u5c06\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u4ef7\u548c\u5927\u5e02\u6307\u6570\u8f6c\u5316\u6210\u6bcf\u5929\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08\u6216\u79f0\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff09\uff1a \x0d\x0a \u6bcf\u5929\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387=\uff08\u5f53\u5929\u4ef7\u683c-\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u4ef7\u683c\uff09/\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u4ef7\u683c \x0d\x0a \u6bcf\u5929\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76ca\u7387=\uff08\u5f53\u5929\u6307\u6570-\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u6307\u6570\uff09/\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u6307\u6570 \x0d\x0a \u8ba1\u7b97\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387(AR) \x0d\x0a \u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387=\u6bcf\u5929\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387-\u6bcf\u5929\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76ca\u7387 \x0d\x0a \u7d2f\u8ba1\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5373\u8fd9\u4e00\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c \x0d\x0a 2. \u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u6b63\u5e38\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff1a \x0d\x0a \u6b64\u5904\u9009\u7528\u5e02\u573a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff1a \x0d\x0a Rit = \u03b1i + \u03b2iRim + \u03b5it \x0d\x0a \u5176\u4e2d\uff0cRit\u662f\u80a1\u7968i\u5728t\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff1bRim\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u5728t\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff1b\u03b5it\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u3002 \x0d\x0a \u5229\u7528\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u4f30\u8ba1\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4e0a\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u7528\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u03b1i\u548c\u03b2i\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u5b9a\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u91cc\uff0cv\u548c\u03b2i\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff1a \x0d\x0a ARit = Rit − \u03b1i − \u03b2iRim \x0d\x0a \u5176\u4e2d\uff0cARit\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u80a1\u7968i\u5728t\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0cRit\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u80a1\u7968i\u5728t\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\uff0cRim\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671ft\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5929\u76f8\u6d41\u901a\u6307\u6570(\u5e02\u573a\u6536\u76ca\u7387)\uff0c\u03b1i\u548c\u03b2i\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u503c\uff0cCARit\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u80a1\u7968i\u5728t\u65f6\u671f\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0cAARt\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671ft\u65f6\u671f\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0cCARt\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671ft\u65f6\u671f\u5185\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u5e73\u5747\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002
AR:abnormal return \u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387 \u662f\u6307\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b63\u5e38(\u9884\u671f)\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c\u5b83\u7b49\u4e8e\u67d0\u65e5\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u51cf\u53bb\u6295\u8d44\u8005(\u6216\u5e02\u573a)\u5f53\u65e5\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u6b63\u5e38(\u9884\u671f)\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002
CAR\uff1aCumulative abnormal return \u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387 \u4e3a\u6bcf\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u671f\u5185\u6708\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u52a0\u603b\u3002
绛旓細璁$畻鍏紡鍙婃柟娉昞x0d\x0a\x0d\x0a1锛氬皢鍏徃鑲′环鍜屽ぇ甯傛寚鏁拌浆鍖栨垚姣忓ぉ鏀剁泭鐜囷紙鎴栫О鍥炴姤鐜囷級锛 \x0d\x0a 姣忓ぉ鑲$エ鏀剁泭鐜=锛堝綋澶╀环鏍-鍓嶄竴澶╀环鏍硷級/鍓嶄竴澶╀环鏍 \x0d\x0a 姣忓ぉ鎸囨暟鏀剁泭鐜=锛堝綋澶╂寚鏁-鍓嶄竴澶╂寚鏁帮級/鍓嶄竴澶╂寚鏁 \x0d\x0a 璁$畻瓒呴鏀剁泭鐜(AR) \x0d\x0a 瓒...
绛旓細鑻辫缂╁啓鏈"CAR"锛屽叏绉颁负"Compliance Analysis Report"锛屽湪涓枃涓缈昏瘧涓"鍚堣鎬у垎鏋愭姤鍛"銆傛湰鏂囨棬鍦ㄦ繁鍏ヨВ鏋愯繖涓缂╁啓璇嶇殑鍚箟锛屽寘鎷叾鑻辨枃鍘熻瘝銆佷腑鏂囨嫾闊筹紙h茅 gu墨 x矛ng f膿n x墨 b脿o g脿o锛変互鍙婂畠鍦ㄨ嫳璇腑鐨勪娇鐢ㄩ鐜囷紝绾︿负42娆°傛澶栵紝鎴戜滑杩樺皢鎺㈣CAR鐨勫垎绫汇侀傜敤棰嗗煙浠ュ強瀹為檯搴旂敤绀轰緥锛屼互甯姪...
绛旓細璧勬湰鍏呰冻鐜囨槸涓涓摱琛岀殑璧勬湰鎬婚瀵瑰叾椋庨櫓鍔犳潈璧勪骇鐨勬瘮鐜囷紝鏄繚璇侀摱琛岀瓑閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯姝e父杩愯惀鍜屽彂灞曟墍蹇呴渶鐨勮祫鏈瘮鐜囥
绛旓細杩欓噷搴旇鏄焊绠(carton)鐨勬剰鎬,搴旇閲囩敤鐨勬槸鍓3涓瓧姣CAR! 鏈洖绛旂敱鎻愰棶鑰呮帹鑽 涓炬姤| 绛旀绾犻敊 | 璇勮(2) 8 1 microfits 閲囩撼鐜:55% 鎿呴暱: 璐告槗 鍏朵粬鍥炵瓟 杩欓噷搴旇鏄焊绠(carton)鐨勬剰鎬, 搴旇閲囩敤鐨勬槸鍓3涓瓧姣岰AR! 鏈曟兂瀛愰潤 | 鍙戝竷浜2016-12-19 涓炬姤| 璇勮 0 0 Committed Access Rate鐨勭畝鍐,...
绛旓細鍏舵锛屼粬鍦閲戣瀺淇濋櫓琛屼笟鐨勯闄╃悊璁烘柟闈㈡湁鎵寤烘爲锛屼笓娉ㄤ簬鏈夐檺鏃堕棿鐮翠骇姒傜巼鐨勭悊璁虹爺绌讹紝浠ュ強鍦╒aR锛圴alue at Risk锛夊拰CaR锛圕onditional Average Risk锛夌害鏉熶笅鐨勬渶浼樻姇璧勭瓥鐣ュ拰鍐嶄繚绛栫暐閫夋嫨銆傝繖浜涚爺绌跺浜庨闄╃鐞嗗疄璺靛叿鏈夊疄闄呭簲鐢ㄤ环鍊笺傚啀鑰咃紝闂捣宄拌繕鍏虫敞鏈畾鏉冪泭鐨勬晥鐢ㄦ棤宸埆瀹氫环鍜屼繚闄╃簿绠楀畾浠凤紝浠ュ強閲戣瀺琛嶇敓浜у搧...
绛旓細(Benchmark)鐨勬渶澶х宸;Emmer绛(2001)寮曞叆浜嗛闄╄祫鏈(Capital at Risk,CaR)鐨勬蹇,鐢ㄤ互浠f浛鏂瑰樊鏉ヨ 閲忛闄;閴翠簬VaR浠呮祴搴︿簡甯傚満甯告佷笅鐨勮祫浜х粍鍚堢殑椋庨櫓,Embrechts绛(1997)灏嗘祴搴︽瀬绔儏鍐电殑鏋佸肩悊璁轰笌VaR鐩哥粨鍚堟彁鍑轰簡娴嬪害甯傚満鏋佺椋庨櫓鐨勬柟娉,McNeil,Frey(2000)杩愮敤鏋佸肩悊璁虹爺绌朵簡鐟炲+閲戣瀺甯傚満鏃堕棿搴忓垪鐨勫熬閮ㄧ壒寰,缁撹...
绛旓細棣栦粯闇瑕佷氦30%锛屼篃灏辨槸6涓囧厓宸﹀彸锛屼絾鏄寘鎷笂鐗屻佷氦绋庛佷繚闄╃瓑绛変箣绫荤殑锛岃嚦灏戦渶瑕佸噯澶10涓囧乏鍙崇殑棣栦粯銆傚亣濡傛垜浠閾惰鐨勮捶娆惧埄鐜囨槸4锛岄偅涔堥浠樻寜鐓30%璁$畻锛岃捶娆句负70%锛屽氨鏄14涓囷紝14涓囩畻鍒╂伅鐨勮瘽锛屼竴骞寸殑鍒╂伅灏辨槸140000*0.04=5600鍏冩瘡骞达紝濡傛灉璐锋鎸夌収涓夊勾璁$畻锛屼笁骞寸殑鍒╂伅灏辨槸5600*3=16800鍏冦傛寜鐓...
绛旓細绗竴锛屼笁鑰呯殑瀹氫箟涓嶅悓锛歛ssetes 鏄祫浜э紝鎸囩敱浼佷笟杩囧幓鐨勪氦鏄撴垨浜嬮」褰㈡垚鐨勩佺敱浼佷笟鎷ユ湁鎴栬呮帶鍒剁殑銆侀鏈熶細缁欎紒涓氬甫鏉ョ粡娴庡埄鐩婄殑璧勬簮銆俢apital鏄祫鏈紝浠庝紒涓氫細璁″鐞嗚鏉ヨ锛岃祫鏈槸鎸囨墍鏈夎呮姇鍏ョ敓浜х粡钀ワ紝鑳戒骇鐢熸晥鐩婄殑璧勯噾銆俥quity鏄痵tockholders鈥 equity鎰忔濇槸鎵鏈夎呮潈鐩婏紝鏄寚浼佷笟璧勪骇鎵i櫎璐熷哄悗锛岀敱鎵鏈夎...
绛旓細3銆 Department of Youth and Family锛堥潚灏戝勾鍜屽搴儴闂級DYF鍙兘鏄煇浜涘浗瀹舵垨鍦板尯鏀垮簻鏈烘瀯鐨勫畼鏂瑰悕绉帮紝鏃ㄥ湪鏀寔鍜屼繚鎶ら潚灏戝勾鍜屽搴殑鏉冪泭锛屾彁渚涙暀鑲层佸挩璇佸簢鎶ゅ拰鍏朵粬鏈嶅姟銆 4銆 Dynamic Yield Function锛堝姩鎬佹敹鐩婂嚱鏁帮級DYF鍙兘鏄竴涓粡娴庡鎴閲戣瀺瀛﹂鍩熺殑鏈锛岃〃绀虹敤浜璁$畻浼佷笟鎴栨姇璧勭粍鍚堟敹鐩...
绛旓細閫氳繃瀵car绯诲垪鏍囧噯绠椾緥鐨勭爺绌,鏄剧ず浜嗘湰鏂囨彁鍑烘柟娉曞叿鏈夎緝楂鐨勮绠閲嶅鎬у拰璁$畻鏁堢巼銆 淇敼A: 鏈枃鐮旂┒浜咹FS闂鐨勬瀯寤,閫氳繃閬椾紶绠楁硶骞剁粨鍚堟暣鏁颁笌瀹炴暟缂栫爜,鐩爣鍑芥暟涓烘渶澶у寲璁惧鍒╃敤鐜囨潵姹傝В銆傛湰鏂囩殑鏌撹壊浣撶紪鐮佹柟娉曚笌瀵瑰簲鐨勯仐浼犵畻娉曟搷浣滃彲鏈夋晥鎻愰珮绠楁硶鐨勫叏灞鎼滅储鑳藉姏銆傞氳繃瀵逛竴浜涘垪鍩哄噯绠椾緥鐨勭爺绌,楠岃瘉浜嗘湰鏂囩畻娉曠殑鏈夋晥鎬,...