eviews怎样做单序列预测
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\u5728\u547d\u4ee4\u884c\u8f93\u5165ls y c x,\u7136\u540e\u56de\u8f66\u3002
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\u5c06\u6837\u672c\u671f\u8303\u56f4\u4ece1978-2003\u5e74\u6269\u5c55\u4e3a1978-2004\u5e74\uff1a\u5728workfile\u7a97\u53e3\u4e2d\u4f9d\u6b21\u70b9\u51fbproc->Structure\u3002
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\u5728equation\u7a97\u53e3\u4e2d\u70b9\u51fbForecast\u3002
\u5728\u5f39\u51fa\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u4e2d\u70b9\u51fbok\u3002
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绛旓細鍦ㄥ脊鍑虹殑绐楀彛涓偣鍑籵k銆傚湪workfile绐楀彛涓細鐢熸垚涓涓獃f锛屽弻鍑绘墦寮瀹冿紝濡傚浘鎵绀猴紝鍗冲彲鐪嬪埌鎴戜滑瀵2004骞寸殑棰勬祴鍊笺
绛旓細鍙互鐨勶紝浣犲皢GDP鐨勬暟鎹缓妯★紝ar锛宮a锛宎rma閫変竴涓紝鎷熷悎缁撴灉鐣岄潰涓嶈鍏虫帀銆備箣鍚庢墿灞曟暟鎹椂闂磋寖鍥达紝杩欐牱棰勬祴涔嬪悗鎵嶄細鍑虹幇2012骞寸殑鏁版嵁锛宲roc-structure/resize current page锛屾妸end date鏀规垚2012灏卞彲浠ヤ簡锛屽湪鍥炲埌鍒氬垰鐨勬嫙鍚堢晫闈紝鐐瑰嚮forecast锛屽湪forecast sample 鍐呯殑鏃堕棿鏀规垚2012骞1鏈堝埌2012骞12鏈堬紙鏁版嵁鏄...
绛旓細棣栧厛锛鐢‥view浣滈娴嬫槸瑕佺粰瀹氳В閲婂彉閲廥鐨勫硷紝鐒跺悗鍒╃敤鎵寤虹珛鐨勬ā鍨嬪Y 杩涜棰勬祴锛屼篃灏辨槸鐭ラ亾X姹俌鍊锛涗妇渚嬭鏄庯細鏈変簲骞寸殑浜哄彛鏁版嵁锛岄渶瑕佺敤EVIEWS鍘婚娴嬬鍏勾鐨勪汉鍙ｆ暟 棰勬祴绗叚骞寸殑浜哄彛锛屽彧椤诲鍓嶉潰浜斿勾鐨勬暟鎹畻鍑哄钩鍧囧闀跨巼锛岀劧鍚庣敤绗簲骞寸殑鏁版嵁涔樹互1+骞冲潎澧為暱鐜囧嵆鍙傚钩鍧囧闀跨巼鍙互鐢4264锛1+x)^...
绛旓細涓銆佸崟搴忓垪妯″瀷鐨勯娴 鏈甯哥敤鐨勬柟娉曞氨鏄寚鏁板钩婊戞硶锛岃繖涓凡缁忓湪涔嬪墠璇︾粏闃愯堪銆侫RMA妯″瀷 鏃堕棿搴忓垪鍙互閫氳繃灏嗘椂闂村簭鍒楀紩鍏ヨ浆鍖栦负澶氬簭鍒楁ā鍨 浜屻佸搴忓垪妯″瀷鐨勯娴 1銆佷竴鑸悊瑙 褰撶‘瀹氫簡搴忓垪涔嬮棿鐨勫洖褰掓柟绋嬩箣鍚庡嵆鍙牴鎹洖褰掓柟绋嬭繘琛屾嫙鍚堥娴嬨侲views璺緞锛氬洖褰掓柟绋嬬獥鍙---forecast銆傝 閲忛娴嬫晥鏋滅殑鏍囧噯鏄娴嬭宸...
绛旓細1銆侀鍏堢敤create鍛戒护寤虹珛workfile锛屽湪workfile structure type 涓夋嫨Dated- regular frequency 锛屽湪Frequency涓夋嫨Annual,鍦⊿tart date 鍜孍nd date 涓垎鍒緭鍏1980浠ュ強2009锛岀偣鍑婚敭鐩極K閿2銆佸湪涓荤獥鍙ｄ腑鐢ㄥ懡浠ata y x銆3銆佸皢鏁版嵁瀵煎叆Eviews涓锛宔xcel鐨勬暟鎹彲浠ョ洿鎺ュ鍒剁矘璐村埌group涓4銆佺敤鏈灏忎簩涔...
绛旓細8 鍦ㄥ脊鍑虹殑绐楀彛涓偣鍑籵k銆9 鍦╳orkfile绐楀彛涓細鐢熸垚涓涓獃f锛屽弻鍑绘墦寮瀹冿紝濡傚浘鎵绀猴紝鍗冲彲鐪嬪埌鎴戜滑瀵2004骞寸殑棰勬祴鍊笺侲ND 娉ㄦ剰浜嬮」 鏁版嵁杈撳叆鍓嶈鍒嗘竻鍝釜鏄В閲婂彉閲忥紝鍝釜鏄瑙ｉ噴鍙橀噺锛屽惁鍒欎細鍑洪敊銆傜粡楠屽唴瀹逛粎渚涘弬鑰冿紝濡傛灉鎮ㄩ渶瑙ｅ喅鍏蜂綋闂(灏ゅ叾娉曞緥銆佸尰瀛︾瓑棰嗗煙)锛屽缓璁偍璇︾粏鍜ㄨ鐩稿叧棰嗗煙涓撲笟浜哄＋銆
绛旓細t)=a+by(t-1)锛屼綘鐨勬牱鏈椂闂翠负2000骞村埌2011骞达紝浣犲凡缁忕煡閬撲簡2000-2010骞寸殑鏁版嵁锛岀幇鍦ㄦ兂棰勬祴2011骞寸殑鏁版嵁銆傚湪eviews鐨勫懡浠ょ獥鍙ｄ腑杈撳叆锛歴mpl 2000 2010 eqation eq1.ls y=c(1)+c(2)*y(-1)smpl 2000 2011 eq1.forcast fy fy.sheet 灏卞緱鍒颁簡浣犵殑棰勬祴鏁版嵁 ...
绛旓細鎴戜滑鍙互鍒╃敤Eviews杞欢瀵规椂闂搴忓垪鐨勬暟鎹繘琛屾ā鍨嬪垎鏋愶紝鎵惧埌鍚堥傜殑妯″瀷锛屽苟瀵规暟鎹繘琛棰勬祴锛屼互渚挎洿濂藉湴浜嗚В鍜屽垎鏋愭暟鎹傛暟鎹殑褰曞叆涓庝繚瀛橈細 鍒涘缓Workfile锛氱偣鍑籉ile/New/Workfile锛岃緭鍏ヨ捣姝㈡棩鏈熴 寤虹珛object杈撳叆鏁版嵁锛氱偣鍑籵bject/newobject锛屽畾涔夋暟鎹枃浠跺悕ex4_2骞惰緭鍏ユ暟鎹 灏哤orkfile淇濆瓨锛氱偣鍑籉ile/save锛...
绛旓細1銆佹墦寮Eviews杞欢骞跺鍏ユ暟鎹傚彲浠ラ氳繃鑿滃崟鏍忕殑File锛孫pen鏉ユ墦寮鏁版嵁鏂囦欢锛屾垨鑰呴氳繃Data->Quick->Openworkfile鏉ユ柊寤轰竴涓伐浣滄枃浠躲2銆侀夋嫨涓涓傚綋鐨勬ā鍨嬭繘琛屽缓绔嬨傚湪Eviews涓锛屽父鐢ㄧ殑棰勬祴妯″瀷鍖呮嫭鑷洖褰掔Щ鍔ㄥ钩鍧囨ā鍨嬶紙ARMA锛夈佽嚜鍥炲綊绉垎绉诲姩骞冲潎妯″瀷锛圓RIMA锛夈佸悜閲忚嚜鍥炲綊妯″瀷锛圴AR锛夌瓑銆傞夋嫨鍚堥傜殑妯″瀷...
绛旓細涓涓兼槸娌℃硶棰勬祴鐨勶紝瑕佷竴涓搴忓垪锛屾墠鑳介娴嬩笅涓鏈
